Wednesday, January 7, 2009

The Satyam story and me

I am not very happy as I write this. In fact, I am downright SAD. It could be said that I got away by the proverbial skin of my teeth, but somehow, that does not give me any satisfaction... I am , as usual, getting a little ahead of myself. Let me start from the beginning
A couple of weeks back when the Satyam computers story broke and the stock plunged 30 % in one day I went fishing in troubled waters. I am, by nature, a careful investor not prone to taking needless risks or getting carried away by greed. Having said that, you may well ask what I was doing buying Satyam stock when all this was blowing up. Let me just say that I considered the fall excessive and indulged, little aware of the rot beneath. In any case, I saw my money vaporise by a further 30% over the next week, but stayed on in the hope that it would recover. True to my belief, the stock climbed again and last Friday it was up 10% from my cost. I tried getting in touch with my broker and gave up after his phone came up busy on two of my attempts. Monday morning I watched as the stock slid again and went back to my cost. Tuesday it climbed 5%. I told myself that if it went up another 5% I would get out . But the board meeting for 10 Jan that had been declared was on the back of my mind.
This morning I watched as it gained about 7%. It had now gained close to 15 % from my cost. I asked myself whether it would be worth my while to wait till the 10Th and capitalise on any positive news that may emerge from the meeting. Then I fell back on my normal investing habit of booking a reasonable profit and called my broker. I Told him to sell all I had. A few minutes later all hell broke loose and , of course, the rest is history. As I write now at the closing of the day the stock has fallen 80% from my sale price. Fishing in troubled waters almost had me end up in the belly of the shark !!
I doubt very many people who had invested in Satyam stock as of this morning got away as I did. I was just very fortunate that I did not let greed carry me away. We are used to hearing horror stories of corporate avarice and downright fraud emerge from the US markets and it is perhaps the first time in Indian corporate history that something of this nature has emerged involving a promoter who built up a billion dollar company over 20 years. The Indian way of thinking, with simplicity, integrity and hard work as the foundation, seems to have gone the same way as Michael Milken and Ivan Boesky. Wonder how many more Satyam computers are lurking in the BSE 100. So who do we trust with our money these days?
A lot of people I know have lost , at the very least, a couple of year's worth of savings over the last six months. So much for the assumption that the longer you work, the better off you are..... I rest my case !!

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